AAW — Student — Phase 2 Attack (laptop)

YOUR TARGETS 3 SHORT-SIDE MEMOS

T14

TARGET 1 ✓ SUBMITTED

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T19

TARGET 2 DRAFTING

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T22

TARGET 3 NOT STARTED

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◆ TARGET MEMO · T19 IRON AXIOM · SHORT

POSITION

SHORT TSLA — Vehicle margins compressed 40% YoY, FSD revenue recognition questionable, Cybertruck ramp missed all guidance. Target price $145 (-38% from $235).

ARGUMENTS3 / 3

A1 Automotive gross margin ex-credits fell to 13.6% in Q4, down from 23.1% prior year — a 950bp compression driven by aggressive pricing.

◉sec.gov/10-K/0001318605-24-000008

A2 FSD deferred revenue balance of $3.5B is recognized on undefined milestones per MD&A, suggesting aggressive revenue smoothing.

◉ft.com/content/tsla-fsd-accounting

A3 Cybertruck Q4 deliveries estimated at 12K units vs management guidance of 50K annualized run rate by year-end.

◉bloomberg.com/news/articles/cybertruck-miss

ISSUES5 / 5

I1 Regulatory credit revenue falling — was $1.79B in 2023, now dropping as peers reach compliance independently.

◉sec.gov/10-K/credits-disclosure

I2 China price war: 4 rounds of cuts YTD, Q4 ASP down ~11% sequentially in that market.

◉reuters.com/business/autos/tsla-china

I3 Capex guidance raised to $11B for 2026 on Optimus + Dojo, adding cash-flow pressure without near-term revenue.

◉tesla.com/investor-day-2026

Click any claim above to copy the exact text into your attack form. Hit ⌘⇧Q to insert the highlighted quote.

T07 → T19

ATTACK 2 OF 3 · YOUR STRONGEST CASE

IF VALID

+$75K

IF INVALID

−$26K

Your challenge * 87 / 200

One sentence. What's wrong with the claim you're challenging? This is your headline — jurors read it first.

Quoted claim from memo *

The exact sentence from Team 19's memo you're challenging. Click a claim on the left to paste.

Your source *

URL the jurors can open, plus the exact quote from it that supports your challenge.

Rationale * 287 / 600

1–3 sentences. Why does your source invalidate their claim? Be specific — jurors read fast.